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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.28+2.61vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.79+0.65vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.48+2.58vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy0.93+3.12vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+1.26vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.57-0.62vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University0.32+1.86vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-1.33vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University-0.57+2.50vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.66-2.19vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.65-3.02vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.50-0.80vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.69-1.26vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.19+0.95vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.80-0.82vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-0.66-4.32vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-2.78-1.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.61University of Hawaii2.280.2%1st Place
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2.65Stanford University2.790.3%1st Place
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5.58University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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7.12California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.1%1st Place
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6.26University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.1%1st Place
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5.38University of California at Los Angeles1.570.1%1st Place
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8.86Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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6.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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11.5Western Washington University-0.570.0%1st Place
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7.81University of Washington0.660.0%1st Place
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7.98University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.0%1st Place
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11.2University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
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11.74University of California at San Diego-0.690.0%1st Place
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14.95University of California at Davis-2.190.0%1st Place
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14.18San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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11.68University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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15.82California State University Channel Islands-2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Rasse | 20.0% | 17.4% | 16.9% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 31.9% | 25.3% | 16.4% | 11.9% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 7.0% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 5.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Wells | 8.8% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 6.8% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kira Blumhagen | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 11.8% | 4.9% | 1.0% |
| Lucien Freemesser | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 15.8% | 14.4% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Max Mccreynolds | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.9% |
| Juliette Cramer | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 31.2% | 27.4% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 23.8% | 24.7% | 14.5% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 15.9% | 14.6% | 11.6% | 6.5% | 1.3% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 9.9% | 22.0% | 52.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.