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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36+5.22vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara-0.05+3.14vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.49+3.78vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07+1.30vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-0.28+0.93vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-2.05+7.25vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University-1.53+4.31vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-2.68+7.36vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-0.75-1.50vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-2.06+3.22vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98-2.34vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.54-0.83vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.52-1.73vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-3.66vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.71-3.27vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-1.70-4.35vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-1.81-6.01vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-3.00-2.43vs Predicted
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20University of California at Berkeley-1.73-8.23vs Predicted
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21University of California at Davis-2.46-6.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.1%1st Place
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5.14University of California at Santa Barbara-0.050.1%1st Place
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6.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.490.1%1st Place
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5.3California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.1%1st Place
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5.93University of California at Los Angeles-0.280.1%1st Place
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13.25University of California at San Diego-2.050.0%1st Place
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11.31Arizona State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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15.36University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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7.5Arizona State University-0.750.1%1st Place
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13.22University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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8.66University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.1%1st Place
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11.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.540.0%1st Place
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11.27University of California at Irvine-1.520.0%1st Place
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10.34University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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11.73University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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11.65University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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11.99Arizona State University-1.810.0%1st Place
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16.57University of California at San Diego-3.000.0%1st Place
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11.77University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
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14.84University of California at Davis-2.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juliet St. Germain | 10.1% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Erisman | 13.9% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Kasper | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Jennings | 13.9% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Spector | 11.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 5.4% |
| Sean Kenealy | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| Nathan Baer | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 16.1% | 19.9% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 5.8% |
| Lucas Elliott | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Claire Wiley | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Emma Feasey | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Conrad Kistler | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| William Bailly | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% |
| Sophia Pless | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 35.2% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| Manuel Mackenna | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 15.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.