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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Davis-2.68+14.43vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles-0.28+3.91vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara-0.05+2.27vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.49+2.66vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-1.38+5.30vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-1.53+5.04vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-2.05+6.49vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-0.75-0.44vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98-0.50vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine-1.70+0.74vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.71-0.20vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36-6.61vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.52-2.80vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.54-3.94vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-1.73-4.21vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-3.88vs Predicted
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18California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07-12.86vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-1.81-6.70vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-3.00-3.54vs Predicted
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21University of California at Davis-2.46-6.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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15.43University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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5.91University of California at Los Angeles-0.280.1%1st Place
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5.27University of California at Santa Barbara-0.050.1%1st Place
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6.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.490.1%1st Place
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10.3University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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11.04Arizona State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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13.49University of California at San Diego-2.050.0%1st Place
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7.56Arizona State University-0.750.1%1st Place
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8.5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.0%1st Place
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11.74University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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11.8University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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6.39University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.1%1st Place
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11.2University of California at Irvine-1.520.0%1st Place
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11.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.540.0%1st Place
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11.79University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
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13.12University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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5.14California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.1%1st Place
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12.3Arizona State University-1.810.0%1st Place
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16.46University of California at San Diego-3.000.0%1st Place
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14.84University of California at Davis-2.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Baer | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 15.7% | 21.5% |
| David Spector | 11.6% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Erisman | 13.1% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Kasper | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Conrad Kistler | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Sean Kenealy | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 2.2% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 6.2% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Elliott | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Ian Johnston | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma Feasey | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| Claire Wiley | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| Orion Spatafora | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 6.3% |
| Sam Jennings | 13.9% | 14.0% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bailly | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 3.5% |
| Sophia Pless | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 33.6% |
| Manuel Mackenna | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 14.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.