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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07+4.20vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+6.54vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-2.05+10.06vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University-0.75+3.65vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-2.06+7.94vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-1.71+5.71vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-0.05-1.70vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-1.38+1.98vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36-2.94vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.49-3.43vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.53-0.13vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-1.81+0.23vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.52-1.87vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.28-8.19vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-1.73-3.37vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-1.70-5.46vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-2.46-3.49vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-2.68-3.50vs Predicted
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20Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14-6.71vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-3.00-4.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.2California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.1%1st Place
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8.54University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.1%1st Place
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13.06University of California at San Diego-2.050.0%1st Place
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7.65Arizona State University-0.750.1%1st Place
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12.94University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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11.71University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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5.3University of California at Santa Barbara-0.050.1%1st Place
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9.98University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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6.06University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.1%1st Place
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6.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.490.1%1st Place
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10.87Arizona State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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12.23Arizona State University-1.810.0%1st Place
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11.13University of California at Irvine-1.520.0%1st Place
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5.81University of California at Los Angeles-0.280.1%1st Place
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11.63University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
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11.54University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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14.51University of California at Davis-2.460.0%1st Place
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15.5University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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13.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.0%1st Place
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16.48University of California at San Diego-3.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Jennings | 13.8% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Elliott | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 2.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.1% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 4.3% |
| Ian Johnston | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% |
| Daniel Erisman | 11.9% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conrad Kistler | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 10.0% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Kasper | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Kenealy | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| William Bailly | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 2.5% |
| Emma Feasey | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| David Spector | 11.6% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% |
| Manuel Mackenna | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 13.8% |
| Nathan Baer | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 21.3% |
| Daniel Gates | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.3% |
| Sophia Pless | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 33.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.