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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+7.41vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07+3.18vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University-0.75+4.66vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles-0.28+1.84vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-1.38+5.15vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.49+0.68vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-0.05-1.78vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-1.71+3.43vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36-2.95vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-1.53+0.88vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-2.05+2.04vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14+1.63vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.52-2.90vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-1.92vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.81-4.02vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-1.70-5.49vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-2.46-3.48vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-2.68-3.51vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-3.00-3.67vs Predicted
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21University of California at Berkeley-1.73-9.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.41University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.1%1st Place
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5.18California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.1%1st Place
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7.66Arizona State University-0.750.1%1st Place
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5.84University of California at Los Angeles-0.280.1%1st Place
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10.15University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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6.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.490.1%1st Place
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5.22University of California at Santa Barbara-0.050.1%1st Place
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11.43University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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6.05University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.1%1st Place
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10.88Arizona State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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13.04University of California at San Diego-2.050.0%1st Place
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13.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.0%1st Place
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11.1University of California at Irvine-1.520.0%1st Place
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13.08University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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11.98Arizona State University-1.810.0%1st Place
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11.51University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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14.52University of California at Davis-2.460.0%1st Place
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15.49University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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16.33University of California at San Diego-3.000.0%1st Place
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11.81University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Elliott | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Sam Jennings | 13.7% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| David Spector | 11.2% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Conrad Kistler | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Lucas Kasper | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Erisman | 13.1% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Kenealy | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 6.9% |
| Emma Feasey | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 6.3% |
| William Bailly | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 2.4% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| Manuel Mackenna | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 13.4% |
| Nathan Baer | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 21.4% |
| Sophia Pless | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 32.8% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.