← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07+4.22vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara-0.05+3.00vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36+3.26vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+4.59vs Predicted
-
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.49+1.56vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Los Angeles-0.28-0.12vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Irvine-1.70+4.93vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Irvine-1.52+2.61vs Predicted
-
9University of California at San Diego-1.71+2.44vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-0.81vs Predicted
-
12University of California at San Diego-2.05+1.03vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Los Angeles-2.06+0.29vs Predicted
-
14Arizona State University-1.53-2.86vs Predicted
-
15Arizona State University-0.75-7.42vs Predicted
-
16Arizona State University-1.81-4.05vs Predicted
-
17University of California at Davis-2.68-1.66vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Berkeley-1.73-6.51vs Predicted
-
19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14-5.53vs Predicted
-
20University of California at Davis-2.46-5.49vs Predicted
-
21University of California at San Diego-3.00-4.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.22California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.1%1st Place
-
5.0University of California at Santa Barbara-0.050.1%1st Place
-
6.26University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.1%1st Place
-
8.59University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.1%1st Place
-
6.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.490.1%1st Place
-
5.88University of California at Los Angeles-0.280.1%1st Place
-
11.93University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
-
10.61University of California at Irvine-1.520.0%1st Place
-
11.44University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
-
10.19University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
-
13.03University of California at San Diego-2.050.0%1st Place
-
13.29University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
-
11.14Arizona State University-1.530.0%1st Place
-
7.58Arizona State University-0.750.1%1st Place
-
11.95Arizona State University-1.810.0%1st Place
-
15.34University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
-
11.49University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
-
13.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.0%1st Place
-
14.51University of California at Davis-2.460.0%1st Place
-
16.51University of California at San Diego-3.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Jennings | 13.9% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Erisman | 14.0% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 11.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Elliott | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Kasper | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Spector | 10.4% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| Emma Feasey | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Ian Johnston | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 1.3% |
| Conrad Kistler | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Ryan McCrystal | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% |
| Sean Kenealy | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailly | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Nathan Baer | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 16.9% | 20.3% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.7% |
| Manuel Mackenna | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 13.1% |
| Sophia Pless | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 15.2% | 33.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.