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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles0.13+2.42vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara-0.14+2.01vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University-2.58+10.26vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-2.98+10.70vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara-0.44-0.22vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-1.25+1.75vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-1.54+2.02vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-2.43+4.33vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-1.79+0.65vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56+3.10vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-2.47vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-3.24+3.82vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.93-2.21vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.60-0.80vs Predicted
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15California Poly Maritime Academy-1.86-4.92vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09-5.01vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-2.79-3.15vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.95-7.47vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-2.32-6.97vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-2.29-7.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.42University of California at Los Angeles0.130.3%1st Place
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4.01University of California at Santa Barbara-0.140.2%1st Place
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13.26Arizona State University-2.580.0%1st Place
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14.7University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
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4.78University of California at Santa Barbara-0.440.1%1st Place
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7.75University of California at Berkeley-1.250.0%1st Place
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9.02University of California at Santa Cruz-1.540.0%1st Place
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12.33University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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9.65Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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13.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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8.53Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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15.82University of California at Irvine-3.240.0%1st Place
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10.79University of California at San Diego-1.930.0%1st Place
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13.2University of California at San Diego-2.600.0%1st Place
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10.08California Poly Maritime Academy-1.860.0%1st Place
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10.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
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13.85Arizona State University-2.790.0%1st Place
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10.53University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
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12.03University of California at Los Angeles-2.320.0%1st Place
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12.17University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Connelly | 25.1% | 19.6% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 17.9% | 17.6% | 16.6% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Ng | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 18.2% |
| JT Long | 13.7% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emerson Marquez | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Connor Fagan | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% |
| Erin Welker | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Schackel | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% |
| Nathan Briar | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Anna Friess | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 15.3% | 28.2% |
| Luc Burkhart | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% |
| Blake Doscher | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Tim Crawford | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 9.5% |
| Laurence Mach | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Julia Rooney | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| Mason Read | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.