← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Los Angeles0.13+2.44vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara-0.44+2.83vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara-0.14+1.12vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Cruz-1.54+4.77vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Berkeley-1.25+2.58vs Predicted
-
6California Poly Maritime Academy-1.86+4.20vs Predicted
-
7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46+1.63vs Predicted
-
8University of California at San Diego-2.60+5.08vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Irvine-3.24+6.68vs Predicted
-
10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09+1.09vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Davis-2.98+3.77vs Predicted
-
12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56+1.35vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Los Angeles-2.32-0.58vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego-1.93-3.61vs Predicted
-
15University of California at San Diego-1.95-4.57vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Los Angeles-2.43-3.51vs Predicted
-
17Arizona State University-2.58-4.02vs Predicted
-
18Arizona State University-2.79-3.93vs Predicted
-
19University of California at Irvine-2.29-7.13vs Predicted
-
20Arizona State University-1.79-10.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.44University of California at Los Angeles0.130.2%1st Place
-
4.83University of California at Santa Barbara-0.440.1%1st Place
-
4.12University of California at Santa Barbara-0.140.2%1st Place
-
8.77University of California at Santa Cruz-1.540.0%1st Place
-
7.58University of California at Berkeley-1.250.1%1st Place
-
10.2California Poly Maritime Academy-1.860.0%1st Place
-
8.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.0%1st Place
-
13.08University of California at San Diego-2.600.0%1st Place
-
15.68University of California at Irvine-3.240.0%1st Place
-
11.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
-
14.77University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
-
13.35Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
-
12.42University of California at Los Angeles-2.320.0%1st Place
-
10.39University of California at San Diego-1.930.0%1st Place
-
10.43University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
-
12.49University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
-
12.98Arizona State University-2.580.0%1st Place
-
14.07Arizona State University-2.790.0%1st Place
-
11.87University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
-
9.81Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Connelly | 24.1% | 20.6% | 15.9% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JT Long | 12.8% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 18.8% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Fagan | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Emerson Marquez | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Blake Doscher | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% |
| Anna Friess | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 25.2% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Alexander Lohan | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 17.9% |
| Ryan Schackel | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.7% |
| Julia Rooney | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% |
| Luc Burkhart | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Laurence Mach | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 4.9% |
| Alexander Ng | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% |
| Tim Crawford | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 12.9% |
| Mason Read | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.4% |
| Erin Welker | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.