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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara-0.44+3.83vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.13+1.40vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles-2.43+9.57vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-1.25+3.61vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-3.24+10.64vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-2.98+8.81vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-1.54+2.05vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara-0.14-4.01vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-2.32+2.99vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.93+0.35vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-2.49vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56+1.23vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.95-2.20vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-2.79-0.04vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-2.60-1.83vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.79-6.23vs Predicted
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17California Poly Maritime Academy-1.86-7.10vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09-6.80vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-2.29-7.07vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-2.58-6.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.83University of California at Santa Barbara-0.440.1%1st Place
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3.4University of California at Los Angeles0.130.2%1st Place
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12.57University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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7.61University of California at Berkeley-1.250.1%1st Place
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15.64University of California at Irvine-3.240.0%1st Place
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14.81University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
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9.05University of California at Santa Cruz-1.540.0%1st Place
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3.99University of California at Santa Barbara-0.140.2%1st Place
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11.99University of California at Los Angeles-2.320.0%1st Place
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10.35University of California at San Diego-1.930.0%1st Place
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8.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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13.23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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10.8University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
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13.96Arizona State University-2.790.0%1st Place
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13.17University of California at San Diego-2.600.0%1st Place
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9.77Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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9.9California Poly Maritime Academy-1.860.0%1st Place
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11.2Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
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11.93University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
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13.31Arizona State University-2.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JT Long | 13.7% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Connelly | 23.1% | 21.9% | 15.8% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Smith | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% |
| Emerson Marquez | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Anna Friess | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 26.4% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 16.5% |
| Connor Fagan | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 18.7% | 17.1% | 16.9% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Rooney | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| Luc Burkhart | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Briar | 6.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Schackel | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% |
| Laurence Mach | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| Tim Crawford | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 12.7% |
| Maria Guinness | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.9% |
| Erin Welker | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| Blake Doscher | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Mason Read | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Alexander Ng | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.