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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles0.13+2.48vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara-0.14+2.07vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz-1.54+5.81vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara-0.44+0.91vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09+6.02vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-2.32+6.15vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-1.25+0.89vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-1.95+2.27vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.93+1.30vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-2.98+4.71vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.79-1.16vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-2.60+1.43vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-2.43-0.14vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-2.790.00vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-2.58-1.88vs Predicted
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16California Poly Maritime Academy-1.86-6.01vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-8.71vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-3.24-2.29vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56-5.97vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-2.29-7.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.48University of California at Los Angeles0.130.2%1st Place
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4.07University of California at Santa Barbara-0.140.2%1st Place
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8.81University of California at Santa Cruz-1.540.0%1st Place
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4.91University of California at Santa Barbara-0.440.1%1st Place
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11.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
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12.15University of California at Los Angeles-2.320.0%1st Place
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7.89University of California at Berkeley-1.250.0%1st Place
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10.27University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
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10.3University of California at San Diego-1.930.0%1st Place
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14.71University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
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9.84Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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13.43University of California at San Diego-2.600.0%1st Place
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12.86University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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14.0Arizona State University-2.790.0%1st Place
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13.12Arizona State University-2.580.0%1st Place
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9.99California Poly Maritime Academy-1.860.0%1st Place
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8.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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15.71University of California at Irvine-3.240.0%1st Place
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13.03Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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12.1University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Connelly | 24.8% | 19.7% | 15.9% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Fourney | 16.4% | 17.3% | 17.5% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Fagan | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| JT Long | 13.1% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 1.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Julia Rooney | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.7% |
| Emerson Marquez | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Laurence Mach | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Luc Burkhart | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Alexander Lohan | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 15.2% |
| Erin Welker | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% |
| Katherine Smith | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% |
| Tim Crawford | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 12.8% |
| Alexander Ng | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% |
| Blake Doscher | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Briar | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Anna Friess | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 26.5% |
| Ryan Schackel | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% |
| Mason Read | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.