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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara-0.14+3.09vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley-1.25+5.65vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.13+0.48vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara-0.44+0.86vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-1.54+3.72vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy-1.86+4.20vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-1.95+3.73vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46+0.27vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09+1.90vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56+3.07vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.93-0.52vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-2.79+2.24vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-2.29-0.71vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.32-1.89vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-3.24+0.50vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-2.58-2.95vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-1.79-7.34vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-2.60-4.66vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-2.98-4.31vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-2.43-7.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.09University of California at Santa Barbara-0.140.2%1st Place
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7.65University of California at Berkeley-1.250.1%1st Place
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3.48University of California at Los Angeles0.130.2%1st Place
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4.86University of California at Santa Barbara-0.440.1%1st Place
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8.72University of California at Santa Cruz-1.540.0%1st Place
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10.2California Poly Maritime Academy-1.860.0%1st Place
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10.73University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
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8.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.0%1st Place
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10.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
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13.07Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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10.48University of California at San Diego-1.930.0%1st Place
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14.24Arizona State University-2.790.0%1st Place
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12.29University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
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12.11University of California at Los Angeles-2.320.0%1st Place
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15.5University of California at Irvine-3.240.0%1st Place
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13.05Arizona State University-2.580.0%1st Place
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9.66Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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13.34University of California at San Diego-2.600.0%1st Place
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14.69University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
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12.65University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Fourney | 17.9% | 17.3% | 16.1% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emerson Marquez | 6.7% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Connelly | 24.3% | 18.2% | 16.0% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JT Long | 13.1% | 15.5% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Connor Fagan | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Blake Doscher | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Laurence Mach | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Nathan Briar | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Ryan Schackel | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.1% |
| Luc Burkhart | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Tim Crawford | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 13.4% |
| Mason Read | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Julia Rooney | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| Anna Friess | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 26.8% |
| Alexander Ng | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% |
| Erin Welker | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.1% |
| Alexander Lohan | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 17.0% |
| Katherine Smith | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.