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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara-0.14+3.05vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz-1.54+6.77vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.13+0.45vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-1.95+6.50vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara-0.44-0.21vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-1.25+1.69vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46+1.72vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy-1.86+1.94vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09+1.92vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56+3.03vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.93-0.53vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-2.79+2.24vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-2.29-0.70vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.32-1.92vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-3.24+0.55vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-2.58-2.88vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-1.79-7.32vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-2.60-4.70vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-2.98-4.27vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-2.43-7.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.05University of California at Santa Barbara-0.140.2%1st Place
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8.77University of California at Santa Cruz-1.540.1%1st Place
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3.45University of California at Los Angeles0.130.2%1st Place
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10.5University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
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4.79University of California at Santa Barbara-0.440.1%1st Place
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7.69University of California at Berkeley-1.250.1%1st Place
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8.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.0%1st Place
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9.94California Poly Maritime Academy-1.860.0%1st Place
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10.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
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13.03Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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10.47University of California at San Diego-1.930.0%1st Place
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14.24Arizona State University-2.790.0%1st Place
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12.3University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
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12.08University of California at Los Angeles-2.320.0%1st Place
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15.55University of California at Irvine-3.240.0%1st Place
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13.12Arizona State University-2.580.0%1st Place
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9.68Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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13.3University of California at San Diego-2.600.0%1st Place
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14.73University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
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12.69University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Fourney | 18.5% | 17.6% | 15.7% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Fagan | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Brendan Connelly | 24.1% | 18.3% | 18.4% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laurence Mach | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| JT Long | 13.0% | 14.6% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emerson Marquez | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Briar | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Blake Doscher | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Ryan Schackel | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% |
| Luc Burkhart | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Tim Crawford | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 13.2% |
| Mason Read | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% |
| Julia Rooney | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% |
| Anna Friess | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 14.2% | 27.2% |
| Alexander Ng | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% |
| Erin Welker | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 7.8% |
| Alexander Lohan | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 16.9% |
| Katherine Smith | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.