Race 3A

2024-rose-bowl

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Noah Robitshek 6.6% 5.9% 6.5% 6.8% 6.4% 7.2% 9.6% 8.9% 9.2% 8.9% 9.8% 7.5% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5%
Oliver Stokke 9.8% 11.9% 13.5% 10.4% 9.6% 10.4% 7.7% 7.1% 7.1% 6.6% 3.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Daniel Unangst 13.6% 13.9% 11.6% 12.6% 10.7% 9.3% 7.7% 8.5% 5.5% 3.4% 2.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Diego Escobar 13.4% 12.0% 12.8% 10.5% 9.3% 10.6% 9.0% 7.1% 5.4% 5.4% 2.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Peter Busch 11.8% 11.2% 9.5% 12.0% 9.9% 10.0% 9.4% 7.0% 5.8% 5.7% 4.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Madison Bashaw 7.9% 9.3% 8.0% 10.1% 9.0% 10.7% 9.5% 9.4% 7.4% 6.8% 6.1% 3.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0%
Luke Harris 5.0% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 7.1% 5.1% 7.8% 8.8% 9.6% 10.4% 11.0% 10.2% 7.8% 3.0% 0.3%
Peter Lobaugh 14.3% 11.2% 11.4% 10.5% 10.4% 8.5% 10.0% 6.1% 6.8% 5.3% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Lars Osell 4.1% 5.0% 5.6% 5.7% 7.3% 8.0% 6.8% 8.3% 12.6% 9.0% 10.6% 11.2% 4.6% 1.2% 0.0%
Marianna Shand 3.0% 2.2% 3.8% 3.4% 3.7% 4.6% 5.6% 7.5% 6.6% 10.6% 12.6% 15.3% 14.0% 5.5% 1.6%
Nicholas Mueller 5.7% 6.6% 6.2% 6.3% 9.0% 7.6% 7.6% 8.7% 9.2% 8.7% 9.2% 9.0% 4.7% 1.1% 0.4%
Joseph Qualtier 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 2.4% 1.1% 1.7% 2.9% 4.5% 12.1% 30.3% 41.8%
Connor Lothrop 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.6% 4.6% 4.7% 5.4% 10.6% 24.7% 25.2% 12.3%
Alexander Kaslosas 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.9% 2.4% 2.6% 5.5% 13.4% 27.4% 42.2%
Jake Weinstein 3.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.8% 4.6% 4.8% 6.2% 6.9% 7.2% 10.4% 13.1% 15.0% 10.0% 4.1% 0.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.