Race 4A

2024-rose-bowl

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Peter Busch 11.6% 13.0% 12.3% 9.2% 10.4% 10.0% 7.5% 8.1% 7.3% 4.4% 3.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
Daniel Unangst 13.9% 14.9% 12.8% 11.7% 10.0% 10.0% 8.7% 4.9% 5.7% 3.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Marianna Shand 3.1% 2.9% 3.5% 4.4% 4.0% 5.4% 4.9% 6.2% 7.4% 10.2% 13.0% 15.9% 12.2% 6.0% 0.9%
Peter Lobaugh 12.5% 11.9% 13.3% 9.3% 11.8% 8.4% 8.8% 8.3% 5.7% 4.6% 3.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Oliver Stokke 11.8% 10.0% 8.9% 10.9% 10.7% 9.7% 8.2% 10.6% 6.1% 4.8% 4.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Luke Harris 3.5% 4.7% 5.3% 5.4% 4.5% 6.7% 7.8% 8.3% 10.1% 12.3% 11.4% 10.0% 6.7% 2.7% 0.6%
Nicholas Mueller 6.6% 5.5% 6.1% 7.2% 6.9% 7.5% 9.3% 10.4% 10.3% 9.3% 8.7% 6.9% 3.6% 1.5% 0.2%
Noah Robitshek 6.0% 4.5% 5.8% 7.7% 7.6% 7.5% 7.1% 9.6% 9.2% 11.3% 9.7% 7.4% 4.5% 2.0% 0.1%
Madison Bashaw 8.3% 8.2% 9.1% 11.4% 9.6% 10.5% 9.2% 8.1% 8.5% 7.3% 5.0% 3.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Joseph Qualtier 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 2.1% 4.1% 5.4% 13.0% 27.8% 40.5%
Lars Osell 4.8% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 7.3% 7.3% 8.2% 7.4% 10.7% 8.2% 9.9% 10.0% 7.5% 1.5% 0.9%
Connor Lothrop 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 1.8% 2.4% 2.0% 2.9% 4.8% 7.5% 11.4% 23.5% 25.8% 12.9%
Jake Weinstein 3.1% 3.5% 4.1% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 6.0% 6.8% 6.8% 11.2% 12.1% 15.0% 11.8% 4.9% 0.8%
Alexander Kaslosas 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 2.3% 2.1% 3.0% 5.6% 13.2% 26.7% 42.9%
Diego Escobar 13.3% 13.2% 11.8% 11.2% 9.3% 9.4% 9.5% 7.2% 6.5% 3.9% 2.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.