Race 3B

fall-fury

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Andrew Fox 45.2% 27.2% 16.0% 6.3% 3.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Halsted 3.9% 3.0% 5.1% 7.7% 9.2% 9.8% 11.8% 13.5% 16.2% 13.2% 6.6%
Patrick Power 9.5% 14.0% 13.5% 14.1% 13.0% 13.6% 9.8% 6.8% 3.9% 1.5% 0.3%
Natalie Sinn 13.4% 20.4% 16.7% 16.9% 12.6% 9.2% 5.6% 2.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
Magdalena Franze-Soeln 1.9% 2.8% 3.1% 3.8% 4.8% 5.3% 9.4% 10.7% 12.6% 21.9% 23.7%
Adam Wenneman 5.9% 8.5% 11.2% 11.5% 12.5% 13.2% 12.8% 8.8% 7.6% 6.5% 1.5%
Julie Griffin 5.7% 5.9% 8.1% 9.7% 11.2% 11.5% 11.0% 15.0% 11.4% 6.8% 3.7%
Sean Francois 7.2% 8.2% 12.8% 13.1% 13.0% 11.3% 11.7% 10.3% 7.9% 3.7% 0.8%
Adam Flanders 4.0% 5.3% 6.6% 8.7% 9.3% 11.9% 12.9% 12.8% 12.0% 11.1% 5.4%
Marian Schubert 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 2.6% 3.1% 3.8% 5.6% 7.4% 9.9% 17.1% 46.4%
Davis Dolson 2.5% 3.1% 5.2% 5.6% 7.8% 9.2% 8.9% 11.9% 16.7% 17.6% 11.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.