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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.53+1.92vs Predicted
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2Hampton University0.81+2.16vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.19-0.48vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University-0.90+2.91vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii0.40-0.82vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.09-3.19vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.90-0.31vs Predicted
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9University of Victoria0.51-4.17vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-1.79-0.09vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-0.87vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-1.67-3.29vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.36-2.88vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.98-2.85vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-2.35-5.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.92University of Hawaii1.530.3%1st Place
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4.16Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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3.52University of Hawaii1.190.2%1st Place
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7.91Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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5.18University of Hawaii0.400.1%1st Place
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3.81University of Hawaii1.090.2%1st Place
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7.69University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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4.83University of Victoria0.510.1%1st Place
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9.91Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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11.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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9.71Rutgers University-1.670.0%1st Place
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11.12University of California at San Diego-2.360.0%1st Place
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12.15University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
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10.98University of California at Los Angeles-2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Summers | 26.8% | 23.4% | 17.5% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 13.3% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arden Rathkopf | 18.9% | 18.8% | 16.2% | 14.8% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 17.6% | 15.9% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Malia Johnson | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 16.8% | 13.9% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 15.6% | 15.4% | 17.9% | 16.2% | 13.1% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 17.1% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Dale Whitmore | 9.9% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 14.4% | 15.5% | 13.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Welker | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 13.7% | 16.2% | 16.0% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 5.2% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 15.7% | 20.1% | 16.8% |
| Kate Faranetta | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 16.6% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% |
| Grace Richie | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 11.4% | 15.0% | 16.3% | 16.9% | 18.5% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 19.0% | 39.9% |
| John Gallagher | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 19.5% | 18.1% | 14.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.