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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.53+1.92vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii0.40+2.95vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.09+0.68vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.81+0.28vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii1.19-1.39vs Predicted
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6University of Victoria0.51-1.08vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.90+0.73vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-2.36+3.03vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.90-2.02vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-1.67-2.27vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.79-3.04vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-2.91vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.98-2.88vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-2.35-5.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.92University of Hawaii1.530.3%1st Place
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4.95University of Hawaii0.400.1%1st Place
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3.68University of Hawaii1.090.2%1st Place
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4.28Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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3.61University of Hawaii1.190.2%1st Place
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4.92University of Victoria0.510.1%1st Place
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7.73University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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11.03University of California at San Diego-2.360.0%1st Place
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7.98Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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9.73Rutgers University-1.670.0%1st Place
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9.96Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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11.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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12.12University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
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11.0University of California at Los Angeles-2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Summers | 28.4% | 22.3% | 17.0% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Malia Johnson | 7.8% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 15.9% | 14.2% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 17.3% | 17.3% | 16.1% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 12.0% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 16.3% | 14.8% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arden Rathkopf | 15.8% | 18.3% | 17.7% | 16.2% | 14.3% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dale Whitmore | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 16.7% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aivan Durfee | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 16.5% | 15.8% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Grace Richie | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 19.6% | 18.2% |
| Mitchell Powers | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 18.3% | 17.0% | 14.2% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Kate Faranetta | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 14.7% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 8.6% | 4.9% |
| Erin Welker | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 15.3% | 16.5% | 14.7% | 10.9% | 5.7% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 12.3% | 15.9% | 16.4% | 16.2% | 17.7% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 20.0% | 38.8% |
| John Gallagher | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 18.5% | 21.4% | 13.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.