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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii0.40+4.01vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.09+1.57vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.53-0.13vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.19-2.47vs Predicted
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7Hampton University0.81-2.66vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-1.25+0.84vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-1.79+0.66vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-2.43+1.21vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-0.90-3.08vs Predicted
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12University of Victoria0.51-7.10vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-1.67-3.28vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-2.90vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.96-4.74vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-2.91-3.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.01University of Hawaii0.400.1%1st Place
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3.57University of Hawaii1.090.2%1st Place
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2.87University of Hawaii1.530.3%1st Place
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3.53University of Hawaii1.190.2%1st Place
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4.34Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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8.84University of California at Berkeley-1.250.0%1st Place
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9.66Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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11.21University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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7.92Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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4.9University of Victoria0.510.1%1st Place
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9.72Rutgers University-1.670.0%1st Place
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11.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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10.26University of California at San Diego-1.960.0%1st Place
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12.09University of California at Davis-2.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malia Johnson | 8.1% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 17.8% | 18.5% | 16.3% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trey Summers | 28.3% | 22.0% | 16.9% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arden Rathkopf | 17.5% | 19.4% | 16.7% | 16.0% | 12.7% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 10.2% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 16.8% | 14.6% | 14.3% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emerson Marquez | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 1.6% |
| Erin Welker | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 5.4% |
| Katherine Smith | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 16.1% | 18.8% | 22.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 14.5% | 16.7% | 18.4% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| Dale Whitmore | 8.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 14.9% | 17.9% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kate Faranetta | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 9.0% | 5.4% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 18.4% | 17.2% | 18.0% |
| Adem Evecek | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 15.7% | 13.5% | 16.4% | 7.7% |
| Claire Desbaillets | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 20.1% | 38.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.