Race 5B

fall-fury

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Andrew Fox 38.2% 27.4% 19.3% 9.7% 4.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mike Flanigan 23.2% 23.8% 19.2% 13.3% 11.4% 5.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Natalie Sinn 12.4% 14.6% 17.2% 18.4% 13.2% 12.4% 6.7% 3.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0%
George Halsted 2.3% 4.0% 4.0% 5.5% 8.4% 9.2% 13.4% 14.4% 17.3% 13.0% 8.5%
Magdalena Franze-Soeln 1.9% 2.0% 2.9% 2.9% 4.7% 7.2% 8.7% 10.2% 14.5% 21.5% 23.5%
Adam Wenneman 4.9% 6.9% 9.4% 11.8% 13.6% 13.4% 15.2% 9.3% 8.8% 4.9% 1.8%
Davis Dolson 2.3% 3.8% 3.2% 5.0% 7.2% 9.1% 11.1% 12.5% 15.3% 17.8% 12.7%
Sean Francois 6.4% 6.8% 10.5% 14.6% 13.8% 12.9% 10.5% 12.0% 7.6% 3.8% 1.1%
Julie Griffin 3.8% 5.1% 6.0% 8.7% 10.9% 13.0% 13.5% 13.7% 12.2% 9.3% 3.8%
Adam Flanders 4.0% 4.8% 6.5% 8.3% 9.3% 12.9% 12.7% 15.2% 12.7% 9.6% 4.0%
Marian Schubert 0.6% 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 3.5% 3.5% 5.6% 8.0% 9.9% 19.9% 44.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.