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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.40+4.29vs Predicted
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2Harvard University1.90+5.63vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.58+1.76vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.80+4.40vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University1.57+3.24vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.20-0.14vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.37-1.60vs Predicted
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8Yale University1.70+0.59vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.13+1.72vs Predicted
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10University of Miami1.93-2.13vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.51-1.76vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.96-5.36vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin0.36-1.66vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College0.73-3.36vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.25-5.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.29Roger Williams University2.4013.4%1st Place
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7.63Harvard University1.905.9%1st Place
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4.76Boston College2.5815.3%1st Place
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8.4University of Rhode Island1.804.5%1st Place
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8.24North Carolina State University1.574.7%1st Place
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5.86Georgetown University2.2011.1%1st Place
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5.4Brown University2.3712.6%1st Place
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8.59Yale University1.705.3%1st Place
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10.72Fordham University1.132.1%1st Place
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7.87University of Miami1.935.5%1st Place
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9.24Tufts University1.513.0%1st Place
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6.64Cornell University1.968.6%1st Place
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11.34University of Wisconsin0.362.0%1st Place
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10.64Bowdoin College0.732.7%1st Place
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9.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.253.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pfrang | 13.4% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Burn | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% |
| Peter Busch | 15.3% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Declan Botwinick | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% |
| Kevin Gosselin | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 3.6% |
| Piper Holthus | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Blake Behrens | 12.6% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Alex Adams | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.5% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 18.9% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Connor Rosow | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 6.8% |
| Winborne Majette | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 27.9% |
| Shea McGrath | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 17.6% |
| Max Katz-Christy | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.