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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+3.17vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+2.34vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.38+0.18vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.53-2.25vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.32-0.12vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.64+0.17vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.20-0.06vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.59-1.75vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-1.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.17University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
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4.34California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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3.18University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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1.75Stanford University3.530.5%1st Place
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4.88University of Washington1.320.1%1st Place
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6.17University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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6.94University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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6.25Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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7.31Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 9.4% | 13.2% | 15.4% | 19.4% | 16.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 6.5% | 11.4% | 18.1% | 19.0% | 18.3% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 17.4% | 22.0% | 21.5% | 17.2% | 12.1% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 52.8% | 28.5% | 12.2% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stone | 5.7% | 9.7% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 15.2% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 7.7% | 4.5% |
| Morgana Manti | 2.3% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 20.6% | 17.8% | 13.1% |
| Wilton Lawton | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 14.9% | 25.5% | 26.0% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 16.5% | 17.0% | 20.3% | 14.3% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 20.1% | 39.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.