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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+2.38vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+4.57vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.47+1.04vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.40+3.28vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.32+2.32vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.31+1.46vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+0.18vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+3.41vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles1.06-3.85vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.07-1.81vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine-0.66-0.73vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara-0.09-3.35vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.18-5.25vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.43+0.31vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-1.70-1.92vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-2.14-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.38California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.2%1st Place
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6.57University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.1%1st Place
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4.04University of Southern California1.470.2%1st Place
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7.28University of California at Berkeley0.400.0%1st Place
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7.32Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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7.46University of California at Santa Cruz0.310.1%1st Place
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7.18Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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11.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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5.15University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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8.19University of California at Berkeley0.070.0%1st Place
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10.27University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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8.65University of California at Santa Barbara-0.090.0%1st Place
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7.75University of California at San Diego0.180.0%1st Place
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14.31University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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13.08University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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13.99University of California at Irvine-2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 24.6% | 20.7% | 14.7% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 18.0% | 15.9% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Olsen | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Carter Anderson | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 12.9% | 4.2% |
| Marianna Shand | 12.1% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Enzo Cremers | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 6.0% | 1.5% |
| Rory Collins | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Katherine Smith | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 12.7% | 24.0% | 42.8% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 12.1% | 19.8% | 24.3% | 17.3% |
| Gennis Marie Pilapil | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 26.4% | 33.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.