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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1-0.44+3.23vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-1.71+5.61vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-1.96+5.41vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49-1.54vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-1.46+0.74vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34+2.28vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.83-2.88vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.90-3.69vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-1.54-2.77vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-2.42vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-5.28vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-2.45-3.24vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.35-4.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.23-0.440.1%1st Place
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7.61University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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8.41University of California at San Diego-1.960.0%1st Place
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2.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.4%1st Place
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6.74University of California at San Diego-1.460.1%1st Place
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9.28Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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5.12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.830.1%1st Place
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5.31University of California at Berkeley-0.900.1%1st Place
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7.23University of California at Santa Cruz-1.540.0%1st Place
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8.58University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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6.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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9.76Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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9.55University of California at Los Angeles-2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JT Long | 13.7% | 16.8% | 14.7% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ian Johnston | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 5.0% |
| Adem Evecek | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% |
| Jack Kisling | 35.9% | 24.9% | 17.9% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Bussey | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.0% |
| Colin Thompson | 1.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| Dante Massaro | 11.4% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Aivan Durfee | 8.7% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Connor Fagan | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.4% |
| Orion Spatafora | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 11.7% |
| Nathan Briar | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| Mason Norwood | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 15.1% | 24.7% |
| John Gallagher | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 15.8% | 21.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.