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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego-1.71+6.80vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles-2.06+6.79vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-1.46+4.07vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.49+0.31vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.83+0.25vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.90-0.52vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34+2.54vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-1.96+0.63vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-2.45+1.24vs Predicted
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10-0.44-5.88vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-3.81vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-2.35-2.14vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-1.54-5.74vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.27-4.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.8University of California at San Diego-1.710.1%1st Place
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8.79University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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7.07University of California at San Diego-1.460.1%1st Place
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4.31Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.490.2%1st Place
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5.25University of California at Santa Cruz-0.830.1%1st Place
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5.48University of California at Berkeley-0.900.1%1st Place
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9.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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8.63University of California at San Diego-1.960.0%1st Place
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10.24Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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4.12-0.440.2%1st Place
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7.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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9.86University of California at Los Angeles-2.350.0%1st Place
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7.26University of California at Santa Cruz-1.540.1%1st Place
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9.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Johnston | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 4.8% |
| Orion Spatafora | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 9.0% |
| Alex Bussey | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Lucas Kasper | 16.0% | 15.6% | 16.2% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dante Massaro | 11.1% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Aivan Durfee | 11.6% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Colin Thompson | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 16.4% |
| Adem Evecek | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% |
| Mason Norwood | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 17.0% | 19.7% |
| JT Long | 17.5% | 17.3% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% |
| John Gallagher | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 17.8% |
| Connor Fagan | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
| Kyle Hirth | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 13.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.