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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+2.40vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26+4.31vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz-0.33+1.31vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.09-0.46vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-2.86vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-2.62+4.13vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-3.00+3.75vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-2.75+2.29vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56+0.91vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-2.64+0.15vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-1.73-3.24vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.95-3.77vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14-4.31vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.42-4.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.4University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.2%1st Place
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6.31University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
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4.31University of California at Santa Cruz-0.330.1%1st Place
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3.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.090.2%1st Place
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2.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.4%1st Place
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10.13University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
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10.75University of California at San Diego-3.000.0%1st Place
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10.29University of California at Los Angeles-2.750.0%1st Place
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9.91Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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10.15Arizona State University-2.640.0%1st Place
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7.76University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
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8.23University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
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8.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.0%1st Place
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9.39University of California at Los Angeles-2.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Baker-Berry | 17.3% | 22.1% | 18.2% | 16.2% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 3.6% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Hunter Holguin | 11.2% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 17.3% | 13.1% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Phibbs | 15.2% | 17.8% | 21.1% | 17.4% | 12.8% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 41.1% | 26.4% | 17.6% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 14.7% |
| Sophia Pless | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 24.0% |
| Katinka Lennemann | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 14.3% | 18.0% |
| Dylan Tran | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 10.9% |
| Elizabeth Ratterree | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 15.9% | 13.0% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Laurence Mach | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Daniel Gates | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 4.1% |
| Aidan Araoz | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.