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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+1.15vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.09+1.47vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56+6.83vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-3.00+6.98vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-1.95+3.27vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26+0.60vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14+1.48vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-2.62+1.92vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-2.64+1.12vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.17-6.53vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.33-6.55vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-2.75-1.63vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-2.42-3.60vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-1.73-6.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.15Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.4%1st Place
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3.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.090.2%1st Place
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9.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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10.98University of California at San Diego-3.000.0%1st Place
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8.27University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
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6.6University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
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8.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.0%1st Place
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9.92University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
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10.12Arizona State University-2.640.0%1st Place
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3.47University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.2%1st Place
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4.45University of California at Santa Cruz-0.330.1%1st Place
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10.37University of California at Los Angeles-2.750.0%1st Place
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9.4University of California at Los Angeles-2.420.0%1st Place
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7.49University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Henderson | 42.4% | 25.9% | 16.3% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Phibbs | 16.4% | 18.6% | 19.6% | 18.9% | 12.1% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Tran | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 10.8% |
| Sophia Pless | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 16.3% | 26.3% |
| Laurence Mach | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 15.1% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Gates | 1.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 3.6% |
| Maria Gunness | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 15.0% |
| Elizabeth Ratterree | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 12.7% |
| Devon Baker-Berry | 15.2% | 20.8% | 19.9% | 16.7% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Holguin | 9.8% | 12.4% | 14.4% | 17.7% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katinka Lennemann | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 17.1% |
| Aidan Araoz | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.