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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25+10.07vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island3.92+6.14vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin3.36+7.67vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.95+3.95vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.05+2.71vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.71+2.95vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.67+2.21vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+2.57vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.29+5.61vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College3.60-0.60vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-2.92vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.89-3.55vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont3.51-3.38vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.37-3.35vs Predicted
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15Boston College3.88-6.84vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida3.49-7.14vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.05-6.07vs Predicted
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19U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99-3.16vs Predicted
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20Boston University3.56-10.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.0%1st Place
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8.14University of Rhode Island3.920.1%1st Place
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10.67University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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7.95Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.71Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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8.95Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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9.21Harvard University3.670.1%1st Place
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10.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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14.61Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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9.4SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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8.08Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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8.45Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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9.62University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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10.65Tufts University3.370.0%1st Place
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8.16Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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9.86University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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11.93Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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15.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
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9.14Boston University3.560.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Liberty | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% |
| Amy Hawkins | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 3.3% |
| William Macdonald | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Wefer | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| Emily Lambert | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Gary Herring | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 17.7% | 26.1% |
| Harry Scott | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Sommer | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Cam Cullman | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Jordan Factor | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| William Hutchings | 4.4% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Alex Cook | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Will Stocke | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Drew Shea | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 7.4% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 40.0% |
| Ryan Pesch | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.