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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.05+6.18vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.05+9.51vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin3.36+7.14vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+5.48vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90+2.57vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.56+3.02vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.37+2.77vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.88-0.39vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.67-0.53vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.89-2.18vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.92-3.37vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College3.71-3.31vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida3.49-3.83vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College3.60-6.49vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont3.51-6.86vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.25-6.61vs Predicted
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18Washington College2.29-3.84vs Predicted
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19U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.99-4.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.18Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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11.51Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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10.14University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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9.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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7.57Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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9.02Boston University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.77Tufts University3.370.0%1st Place
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7.61Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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8.47Harvard University3.670.1%1st Place
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7.82Yale University3.890.1%1st Place
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7.63University of Rhode Island3.920.1%1st Place
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8.69Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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9.17University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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8.51SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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9.14University of Vermont3.510.1%1st Place
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10.39St. Mary's College of Maryland3.250.0%1st Place
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14.16Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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14.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wefer | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Drew Shea | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.1% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 3.3% |
| Gary Herring | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Andrew Sommer | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Ryan Pesch | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| William Hutchings | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| Alex Cook | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Emily Lambert | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Cam Cullman | 9.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Amy Hawkins | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Will Stocke | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Harry Scott | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Jordan Factor | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Ian Liberty | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| Mildred Conroy | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 19.6% | 28.7% |
| Jacob Tronaas | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 15.7% | 37.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.