Race 1A

mt-hope-bay-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Caleb Armstrong 8.6% 10.6% 11.6% 8.9% 9.5% 7.3% 9.1% 8.8% 7.1% 5.7% 5.0% 4.8% 2.4% 0.6%
Nicolas Russo-Larsson 15.4% 13.4% 13.3% 10.6% 10.2% 9.8% 7.5% 7.2% 4.5% 3.4% 1.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Emily Billing 11.5% 11.0% 10.2% 8.4% 9.2% 10.0% 8.5% 6.6% 8.2% 6.4% 5.5% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%
Connor Needham 11.2% 13.6% 11.3% 12.3% 10.0% 7.8% 8.4% 6.8% 6.5% 5.7% 3.2% 2.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Andrew Tamblyn 7.2% 9.9% 8.3% 11.8% 8.1% 9.8% 6.7% 7.8% 8.9% 6.7% 7.1% 5.1% 1.8% 0.8%
Jessica Claflin 8.7% 6.0% 9.3% 7.6% 9.5% 9.0% 8.7% 7.5% 7.9% 7.9% 7.5% 5.2% 3.9% 1.3%
Matthew Paige 5.3% 6.8% 6.7% 5.0% 5.7% 6.9% 7.1% 7.8% 10.1% 7.9% 10.7% 10.2% 7.0% 2.8%
Alexander Rudkin 3.1% 3.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.9% 5.3% 4.5% 5.5% 6.3% 7.9% 10.5% 11.2% 19.1% 12.8%
Bo McClatchy 9.2% 8.0% 7.7% 9.1% 10.3% 8.1% 9.7% 8.5% 9.0% 7.6% 5.8% 3.9% 1.8% 1.3%
John McGlynn 5.9% 5.6% 5.5% 6.9% 6.7% 8.2% 7.4% 9.4% 8.1% 10.5% 9.1% 9.6% 4.3% 2.8%
Tom Peabody 6.7% 5.4% 5.2% 8.1% 6.9% 7.9% 8.4% 8.0% 8.9% 8.8% 9.4% 7.5% 6.3% 2.5%
William Simon 3.3% 2.9% 4.0% 3.9% 5.5% 4.8% 7.6% 5.6% 7.4% 11.7% 10.7% 12.2% 10.9% 9.5%
Priscilla Stoll 1.7% 0.7% 1.2% 1.5% 2.1% 1.2% 1.6% 3.5% 2.2% 3.5% 5.7% 9.7% 16.5% 48.9%
Thomas Presti 2.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7% 2.4% 3.9% 4.8% 7.0% 4.9% 6.3% 7.9% 14.1% 22.7% 16.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.