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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University0.93+5.40vs Predicted
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2Fairfield University0.69+5.29vs Predicted
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3Tufts University0.65+4.53vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.61+0.39vs Predicted
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5Brown University0.64+2.37vs Predicted
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6Brown University0.58+2.00vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.18+2.38vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island-0.23+2.59vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.76-1.71vs Predicted
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10Olin College of Engineering0.52-2.07vs Predicted
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11Bates College-0.19-0.19vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire0.39-3.54vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-0.78-0.18vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University0.11-4.26vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.26-4.06vs Predicted
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16University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.02-0.38vs Predicted
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17Middlebury College0.43-8.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.4Tufts University0.930.1%1st Place
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7.29Fairfield University0.690.1%1st Place
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7.53Tufts University0.650.1%1st Place
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4.39Tufts University1.610.2%1st Place
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7.37Brown University0.640.1%1st Place
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8.0Brown University0.580.1%1st Place
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9.38Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.180.0%1st Place
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10.59University of Rhode Island-0.230.0%1st Place
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7.29University of Vermont0.760.1%1st Place
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7.93Olin College of Engineering0.520.1%1st Place
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10.81Bates College-0.190.0%1st Place
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8.46University of New Hampshire0.390.0%1st Place
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12.82University of New Hampshire-0.780.0%1st Place
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9.74Northeastern University0.110.0%1st Place
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10.94University of New Hampshire-0.260.0%1st Place
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15.62University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.020.0%1st Place
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8.45Middlebury College0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Vogel | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nolan Cooper | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Harry Kaya Prager | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Adam Larzelere | 18.9% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| John Divelbiss | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Alden Coldreck | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 5.5% |
| Audrey Commerford | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| James Jagielski | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Cameron Frary | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 4.1% |
| James Sullivan | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Sonja Krajewski | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 23.2% | 13.2% |
| Isabella Cho | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 5.0% |
| Iain Gillespie | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 13.1% | 64.2% |
| Walter Chiles | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.