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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.61+3.14vs Predicted
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2Brown University0.58+5.69vs Predicted
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3Tufts University0.93+3.50vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.65+3.57vs Predicted
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5Bates College-0.19+5.58vs Predicted
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6Fairfield University0.69+1.59vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.76+0.12vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-0.26+2.69vs Predicted
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9Brown University0.64-1.29vs Predicted
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10Olin College of Engineering0.52-2.11vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.18-1.48vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island-0.23-1.17vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College0.43-4.48vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire0.39-5.32vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.78-2.31vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University0.11-6.35vs Predicted
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17University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.02-1.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.14Tufts University1.610.2%1st Place
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7.69Brown University0.580.1%1st Place
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6.5Tufts University0.930.1%1st Place
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7.57Tufts University0.650.1%1st Place
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10.58Bates College-0.190.0%1st Place
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7.59Fairfield University0.690.1%1st Place
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7.12University of Vermont0.760.1%1st Place
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10.69University of New Hampshire-0.260.0%1st Place
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7.71Brown University0.640.1%1st Place
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7.89Olin College of Engineering0.520.1%1st Place
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9.52Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.180.0%1st Place
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10.83University of Rhode Island-0.230.0%1st Place
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8.52Middlebury College0.430.1%1st Place
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8.68University of New Hampshire0.390.1%1st Place
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12.69University of New Hampshire-0.780.0%1st Place
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9.65Northeastern University0.110.0%1st Place
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15.64University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larzelere | 22.4% | 15.3% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Blake Vogel | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Harry Kaya Prager | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Frary | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 4.9% |
| Nolan Cooper | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Audrey Commerford | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Ted Richardsson | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 4.8% |
| Keller Morrison | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| James Jagielski | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| John Divelbiss | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| Alden Coldreck | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 3.4% |
| Walter Chiles | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| James Sullivan | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Sonja Krajewski | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 13.5% | 23.8% | 12.3% |
| Isabella Cho | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% |
| Iain Gillespie | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 6.1% | 11.7% | 65.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.