Race 11A

mt-hope-bay-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emily Billing 11.6% 11.6% 12.3% 10.2% 11.2% 8.1% 10.0% 8.0% 8.5% 4.1% 2.7% 1.5% 0.2%
John Meleney 12.9% 11.7% 11.6% 12.3% 12.3% 10.8% 6.3% 7.9% 6.3% 4.0% 2.1% 1.7% 0.1%
Connor Needham 12.2% 15.2% 12.8% 10.9% 10.3% 9.9% 9.6% 7.1% 5.1% 3.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Bo McClatchy 10.0% 9.4% 10.6% 10.5% 8.5% 9.5% 9.6% 9.7% 7.8% 8.1% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4%
Caleb Armstrong 10.7% 11.2% 10.4% 10.5% 8.9% 10.6% 8.3% 9.5% 7.4% 6.1% 4.5% 1.7% 0.2%
John McGlynn 7.5% 6.3% 6.2% 9.3% 8.0% 7.3% 9.0% 11.1% 10.1% 10.3% 9.4% 4.8% 0.7%
Andrew Tamblyn 11.9% 10.3% 9.6% 8.5% 11.0% 9.5% 10.0% 8.4% 8.6% 5.1% 5.2% 1.7% 0.2%
Mark Gargula 3.2% 4.8% 4.4% 4.7% 3.9% 6.8% 7.2% 7.9% 10.8% 13.2% 16.4% 12.8% 3.9%
Jessica Claflin 9.5% 8.5% 8.8% 9.1% 9.7% 9.1% 10.2% 8.5% 8.9% 8.8% 5.8% 2.1% 1.0%
Brooke Doyon 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 2.4% 4.1% 8.1% 20.7% 54.5%
Matthew Paige 5.6% 5.9% 7.0% 6.6% 6.4% 9.0% 9.4% 9.8% 11.7% 11.1% 9.3% 6.4% 1.8%
William Simon 3.4% 3.4% 4.2% 4.7% 6.9% 5.6% 6.2% 7.5% 8.7% 13.7% 18.5% 12.2% 5.0%
Priscilla Stoll 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 2.2% 3.2% 3.7% 7.5% 11.3% 32.3% 31.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.