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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.65+6.11vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.93+4.07vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.55+1.29vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.03+1.87vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.38-0.08vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston1.75+0.77vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.26+1.51vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+2.24vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.28-0.66vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.57-2.50vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.79-0.93vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.76-1.54vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan0.10-0.82vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-5.55vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.02-5.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.11North Carolina State University1.650.1%1st Place
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6.07Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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4.29Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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5.87Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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4.92Tulane University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.77College of Charleston1.750.1%1st Place
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8.51George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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10.24St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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8.34Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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7.5Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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10.07Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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10.46University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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12.18University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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8.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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9.23Tufts University1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Sowa | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| J.J. Smith | 8.5% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.8% | 15.3% | 15.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Ermlich | 10.4% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Ava Anderson | 14.8% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Grace Squires | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 15.5% | 12.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 12.9% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 18.0% | 36.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.1% |
| Samantha Jensen | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.