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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+7.32vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University2.03+3.83vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.65+4.06vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.26+4.46vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.28+3.50vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.55-1.66vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.93-0.83vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston1.75-1.19vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.38-4.25vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.02-0.56vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.76-0.77vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.57-4.34vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-2.62vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.10-2.00vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.79-4.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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5.83Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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7.06North Carolina State University1.650.1%1st Place
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8.46George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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8.5Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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4.34Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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6.17Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.81College of Charleston1.750.1%1st Place
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4.75Tulane University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.44Tufts University1.020.0%1st Place
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10.23University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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7.66Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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10.38St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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12.0University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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10.04Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% |
| Eva Ermlich | 9.9% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Olivia Sowa | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% |
| Piper Holthus | 16.6% | 15.9% | 14.5% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.0% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Grace Squires | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Ava Anderson | 14.2% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Samantha Jensen | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 7.7% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.6% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 13.8% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 18.0% | 33.7% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 12.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.