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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.55+3.32vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.57+5.19vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston1.75+3.66vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.03+1.86vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.28+3.43vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.62+1.20vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.93-0.86vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.79+1.99vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-0.68vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.38-5.10vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan0.10+0.88vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-1.66vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.65-5.59vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.26-5.57vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.37-2.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.32Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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7.19Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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6.66College of Charleston1.750.1%1st Place
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5.86Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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8.43Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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7.2Tufts University1.620.1%1st Place
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6.14Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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9.99Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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8.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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4.9Tulane University2.380.1%1st Place
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11.88University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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10.34St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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7.41North Carolina State University1.650.1%1st Place
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8.43George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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12.92University of Vermont-0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 17.6% | 17.3% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Grace Squires | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Eva Ermlich | 10.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.6% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 2.5% |
| Ella Hubbard | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 7.7% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 1.5% |
| Ava Anderson | 13.5% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 22.1% | 24.8% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 14.8% | 8.5% |
| Olivia Sowa | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Jordynn Johnson | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 48.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.