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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University2.03+4.81vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.55+2.31vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.26+5.37vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.93+2.23vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.28+3.40vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.38-1.21vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.57+0.39vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.62-0.76vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan0.10+2.93vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-1.50vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-1.37vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.79-1.73vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.65-5.62vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont-0.37-1.02vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston1.75-8.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.81Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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4.31Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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8.37George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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6.23Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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8.4Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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4.79Tulane University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.39Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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7.24Tufts University1.620.1%1st Place
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11.93University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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8.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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9.63St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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10.27Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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7.38North Carolina State University1.650.1%1st Place
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12.98University of Vermont-0.370.0%1st Place
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6.78College of Charleston1.750.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eva Ermlich | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.4% | 16.8% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 1.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.5% |
| Ava Anderson | 13.6% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| Ella Hubbard | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 1.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 22.0% | 23.7% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 2.9% |
| Lily Flack | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 6.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 9.3% |
| Olivia Sowa | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Jordynn Johnson | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 47.5% |
| Grace Squires | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.