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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.55+3.35vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University2.03+3.75vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.93+3.16vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.75+2.85vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.38-0.02vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.28+2.47vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.26+1.39vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.57-0.56vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.62-1.83vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont-0.37+3.03vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan0.10+0.92vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-2.15vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.79-2.80vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.65-6.90vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-6.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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5.75Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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6.16Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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6.85College of Charleston1.750.1%1st Place
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4.98Tulane University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.47Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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8.39George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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7.44Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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7.17Tufts University1.620.1%1st Place
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13.03University of Vermont-0.370.0%1st Place
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11.92University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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9.85St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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10.2Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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7.1North Carolina State University1.650.1%1st Place
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8.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 18.2% | 16.2% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Eva Ermlich | 10.1% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.5% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Grace Squires | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Ava Anderson | 14.6% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 1.6% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 2.2% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Ella Hubbard | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Jordynn Johnson | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 16.9% | 48.6% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 20.3% | 27.3% |
| Lily Flack | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 5.6% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 15.6% | 8.2% |
| Olivia Sowa | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.