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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+7.34vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.55+2.28vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.93+3.17vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.03+1.93vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.38-0.06vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.57+1.47vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston1.75-0.21vs Predicted
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8North Carolina State University1.65-0.84vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.26-0.57vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.62-2.68vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.28-2.60vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-2.13vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan0.10-0.91vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.79-4.07vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.37-2.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.1%1st Place
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4.28Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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6.17Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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5.93Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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4.94Tulane University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.47Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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6.79College of Charleston1.750.1%1st Place
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7.16North Carolina State University1.650.1%1st Place
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8.43George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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7.32Tufts University1.620.1%1st Place
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8.4Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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9.87St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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12.09University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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9.93Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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12.9University of Vermont-0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 18.1% | 17.0% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 8.4% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Eva Ermlich | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Ava Anderson | 15.0% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Grace Squires | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Olivia Sowa | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 1.9% |
| Ella Hubbard | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% |
| Lily Flack | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 5.9% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 22.2% | 28.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 7.4% |
| Jordynn Johnson | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 9.1% | 19.7% | 45.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.