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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.55+3.25vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.57+5.09vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.26+5.21vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27+4.31vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston1.75+1.74vs Predicted
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6Tulane University2.38-1.33vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.03-1.24vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.79+1.89vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.28-0.81vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.00-0.76vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.93-4.86vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont-0.37+1.09vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.65-5.70vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-4.57vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.10-3.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.25Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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7.09Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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8.21George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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8.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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6.74College of Charleston1.750.1%1st Place
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4.67Tulane University2.380.1%1st Place
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5.76Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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9.89Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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8.19Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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9.24Tufts University1.000.0%1st Place
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6.14Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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13.09University of Vermont-0.370.0%1st Place
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7.3North Carolina State University1.650.1%1st Place
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9.43St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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11.69University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 18.9% | 16.5% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.5% |
| Grace Squires | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Ava Anderson | 14.9% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eva Ermlich | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 7.9% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.8% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Meredith Broadus | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 5.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 8.6% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Jordynn Johnson | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 17.7% | 48.1% |
| Olivia Sowa | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Lily Flack | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 5.6% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 22.0% | 23.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.