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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.04+3.60vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.57+3.92vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+5.11vs Predicted
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4Cornell University0.85+4.57vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.49+4.81vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.46+0.49vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.57+2.45vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.30-0.96vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.52-2.79vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University1.01-1.82vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.22-3.69vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-4.66vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-0.52-0.27vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University0.37-3.84vs Predicted
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15Fordham University0.99-6.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6College of Charleston2.040.2%1st Place
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5.92Tulane University1.570.1%1st Place
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8.11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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8.57Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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9.81Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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6.49North Carolina State University1.460.1%1st Place
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9.45University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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7.04Tufts University1.300.1%1st Place
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6.21Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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8.18Georgetown University1.010.1%1st Place
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7.31George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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7.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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12.73University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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10.16Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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8.09Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Tallman | 16.7% | 17.0% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Spearman | 10.2% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 3.0% |
| Maya Conway | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.0% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 10.1% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Caitlin Derby | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 8.3% |
| Haley Andreasen | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 48.7% |
| Laura Smith | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 14.3% | 11.9% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.