Race 2B

mt-hope-bay-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Johanna Kincaid 10.2% 11.1% 11.2% 8.9% 10.3% 10.9% 8.3% 9.0% 5.8% 6.6% 5.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Michael Booker 14.2% 12.5% 12.7% 12.4% 10.7% 9.9% 8.8% 7.3% 5.3% 3.4% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
William Gibbons 10.5% 9.8% 10.2% 8.6% 9.9% 7.8% 9.8% 9.3% 9.5% 7.3% 4.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Abby Preston 5.5% 7.9% 7.9% 7.5% 7.6% 9.4% 9.6% 10.3% 10.0% 7.9% 9.8% 3.9% 2.5% 0.2%
Cole Rice 4.4% 6.7% 7.1% 7.3% 7.2% 8.3% 9.5% 9.3% 10.9% 10.3% 9.4% 5.6% 2.7% 1.3%
Christopher Price 9.5% 8.8% 8.9% 10.8% 10.2% 10.2% 9.1% 7.9% 9.3% 6.8% 4.9% 2.9% 0.7% 0.0%
James Rohman 8.9% 10.0% 8.7% 8.7% 9.9% 8.6% 11.4% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1% 5.2% 1.7% 1.3% 0.3%
Connor Brady 13.1% 10.6% 12.2% 11.8% 8.9% 8.4% 9.9% 7.0% 6.8% 5.4% 3.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Dan Nickerson 14.8% 14.6% 11.7% 12.3% 11.6% 10.1% 7.1% 7.0% 4.8% 3.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Angus Page 3.5% 2.9% 3.1% 5.6% 5.7% 6.1% 6.4% 8.7% 9.9% 12.4% 12.3% 12.2% 7.8% 3.4%
Isabel Elliman 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.6% 3.8% 5.2% 6.9% 9.2% 11.8% 19.5% 17.5% 12.4%
Luke Miller 1.4% 1.6% 2.3% 1.5% 2.5% 3.0% 2.4% 4.5% 6.2% 9.1% 14.1% 18.6% 18.0% 14.8%
James Fales 1.5% 0.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.7% 2.3% 3.4% 2.7% 4.8% 7.7% 17.1% 23.6% 30.6%
Charles Cahill 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.6% 2.6% 3.2% 5.7% 8.5% 11.3% 23.3% 36.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.