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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University1.57+5.00vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.04+2.45vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.30+3.91vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.46+2.46vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.22+2.37vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.85+2.67vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.01+0.98vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.57+1.57vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.52-2.82vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.37+0.25vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-2.80vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-4.67vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-0.52-0.23vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.99-5.93vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University0.49-5.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.0Tulane University1.570.1%1st Place
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4.45College of Charleston2.040.2%1st Place
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6.91Tufts University1.300.1%1st Place
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6.46North Carolina State University1.460.1%1st Place
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7.37George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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8.67Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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7.98Georgetown University1.010.1%1st Place
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9.57University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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6.18Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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10.25Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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8.2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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7.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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12.77University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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8.07Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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9.79Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Spearman | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Emma Tallman | 18.6% | 15.1% | 13.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Haley Andreasen | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Maya Conway | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.4% |
| Morgan Rice | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 2.8% |
| Caitlin Derby | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 8.2% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Laura Smith | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 14.8% | 12.2% |
| Lina Carper | 4.3% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 3.6% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 14.9% | 48.8% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 11.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.