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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University1.57+4.96vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.52+4.08vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.37+7.13vs Predicted
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4Cornell University0.85+4.54vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.30+2.08vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+2.22vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.99+1.04vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.01+0.07vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.46-2.62vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.57-0.38vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.49-1.19vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.22-4.51vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-5.63vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan-0.52-1.38vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.04-10.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96Tulane University1.570.1%1st Place
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6.08Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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10.13Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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8.54Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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7.08Tufts University1.300.1%1st Place
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8.22St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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8.04Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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8.07Georgetown University1.010.1%1st Place
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6.38North Carolina State University1.460.1%1st Place
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9.62University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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9.81Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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7.49George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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7.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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12.62University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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4.59College of Charleston2.040.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Spearman | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Laura Smith | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 16.1% | 11.4% |
| Maya Conway | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 4.8% |
| Haley Andreasen | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Lina Carper | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 2.6% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.2% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 10.3% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 14.4% | 46.5% |
| Emma Tallman | 16.6% | 16.3% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.