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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University1.57+5.00vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.04+2.46vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+5.07vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.37+6.17vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+2.19vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.46+0.48vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.52-0.80vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.49+1.86vs Predicted
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9Cornell University0.85-0.49vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.99-1.80vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.30-3.98vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University1.01-3.74vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.22-5.43vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.57-4.53vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.52-2.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.0Tulane University1.570.1%1st Place
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4.46College of Charleston2.040.2%1st Place
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8.07St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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10.17Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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7.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.48North Carolina State University1.460.1%1st Place
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6.2Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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9.86Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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8.51Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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8.2Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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7.02Tufts University1.300.1%1st Place
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8.26Georgetown University1.010.0%1st Place
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7.57George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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9.47University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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12.55University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Spearman | 10.7% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Emma Tallman | 17.8% | 16.2% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 13.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 10.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 11.1% |
| Maya Conway | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 2.9% |
| Haley Andreasen | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Morgan Rice | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 2.9% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.4% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 47.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.