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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.46+5.37vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.30+4.79vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+5.05vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+3.02vs Predicted
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5Tulane University1.57+1.17vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.22+1.27vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.37+3.12vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.52-1.73vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.49+0.77vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.85-1.34vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.04-6.26vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.99-3.67vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University1.01-4.70vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.57-4.43vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.52-2.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.37North Carolina State University1.460.1%1st Place
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6.79Tufts University1.300.1%1st Place
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8.05St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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7.02Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.17Tulane University1.570.1%1st Place
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7.27George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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10.12Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.27Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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9.77Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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8.66Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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4.74College of Charleston2.040.2%1st Place
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8.33Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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8.3Georgetown University1.010.1%1st Place
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9.57University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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12.57University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabella du Plessis | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| Haley Andreasen | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Lina Carper | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Lucy Spearman | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Laura Smith | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 13.1% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 8.6% |
| Maya Conway | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 4.6% |
| Emma Tallman | 15.8% | 17.5% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 3.3% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 3.3% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 9.1% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 14.1% | 47.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.