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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.04+3.57vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.57+3.95vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.30+3.91vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.01+4.01vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.22+2.33vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+1.09vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+1.08vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.52-1.76vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.46-2.61vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.85-1.30vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.49-1.13vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan-0.52+0.90vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.37-2.61vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.99-5.92vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.57-5.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.57College of Charleston2.040.2%1st Place
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5.95Tulane University1.570.1%1st Place
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6.91Tufts University1.300.1%1st Place
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8.01Georgetown University1.010.1%1st Place
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7.33George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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7.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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8.08St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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6.24Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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6.39North Carolina State University1.460.1%1st Place
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8.7Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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9.87Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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12.9University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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10.39Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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8.08Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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9.48University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Tallman | 16.2% | 16.8% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Spearman | 10.1% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Haley Andreasen | 8.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 3.1% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Lina Carper | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 2.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 10.2% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Maya Conway | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 4.7% |
| Emma Friedauer | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 11.1% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 49.2% |
| Laura Smith | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 13.3% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.