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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.22+5.99vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.04+2.33vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+3.75vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.46+2.31vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.52+1.17vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.85+2.45vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.37+3.02vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.49+1.67vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.99-1.11vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University1.01-2.06vs Predicted
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11Tulane University1.32-4.22vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-3.81vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.57-3.40vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan-0.52-1.50vs Predicted
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15Tufts University0.84-6.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.99George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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4.33College of Charleston2.040.2%1st Place
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6.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.31North Carolina State University1.460.1%1st Place
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6.17Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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8.45Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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10.02Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.67Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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7.89Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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7.94Georgetown University1.010.1%1st Place
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6.78Tulane University1.320.1%1st Place
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8.19St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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9.6University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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12.5University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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8.41Tufts University0.840.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Emma Tallman | 18.6% | 16.0% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 10.3% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Maya Conway | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 4.1% |
| Laura Smith | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 13.5% |
| Emma Friedauer | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 9.9% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
| Audrey Permenter | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Lina Carper | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 2.7% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 8.6% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 45.7% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.