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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.46+5.19vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.04+2.36vs Predicted
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3Cornell University0.85+5.30vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.84+4.41vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.22+2.19vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.49+3.72vs Predicted
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7Tulane University1.32-0.27vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.37+2.03vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University1.01-1.25vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-3.02vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan-0.52+1.53vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.52-5.64vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.57-3.38vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.99-6.12vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-7.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.19North Carolina State University1.460.1%1st Place
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4.36College of Charleston2.040.2%1st Place
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8.3Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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8.41Tufts University0.840.0%1st Place
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7.19George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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9.72Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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6.73Tulane University1.320.1%1st Place
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10.03Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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7.75Georgetown University1.010.1%1st Place
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6.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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12.53University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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6.36Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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9.62University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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7.88Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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7.94St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabella du Plessis | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Emma Tallman | 17.2% | 18.5% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maya Conway | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 3.3% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 3.7% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Emma Friedauer | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 8.7% |
| Audrey Permenter | 10.3% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Laura Smith | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 15.0% | 12.5% |
| Morgan Rice | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 47.7% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 9.7% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 9.3% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% |
| Lina Carper | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.