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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.04+3.51vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+5.88vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.37+7.06vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.99+3.95vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.52+1.22vs Predicted
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6Tulane University1.57-0.04vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.49+2.59vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-1.01vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University1.01-1.13vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University1.46-3.58vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.22-3.86vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.85-3.29vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.57-3.34vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan-0.52-1.44vs Predicted
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15Tufts University0.84-6.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51College of Charleston2.040.2%1st Place
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7.88St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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10.06Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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7.95Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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6.22Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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5.96Tulane University1.570.1%1st Place
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9.59Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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6.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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7.87Georgetown University1.010.1%1st Place
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6.42North Carolina State University1.460.1%1st Place
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7.14George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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8.71Cornell University0.850.0%1st Place
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9.66University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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12.56University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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8.47Tufts University0.840.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Tallman | 17.2% | 17.0% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Lina Carper | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% |
| Laura Smith | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 14.7% | 11.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 9.9% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Lucy Spearman | 10.5% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Emma Friedauer | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 10.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Morgan Rice | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| Maya Conway | 4.8% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 4.4% |
| Caitlin Derby | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 9.0% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 45.9% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.