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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island1.38+3.39vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.64+1.69vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University0.39+4.18vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.96+1.54vs Predicted
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5Brown University0.58+1.77vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.60+0.67vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.34+0.07vs Predicted
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8McGill University-0.01+0.34vs Predicted
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9Bates College-0.50+0.79vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University0.69-3.65vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.92-5.29vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.47-2.31vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.29-1.45vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-1.67-1.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.39University of Rhode Island1.380.2%1st Place
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3.69Brown University1.640.2%1st Place
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7.18Northeastern University0.390.1%1st Place
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5.54Connecticut College0.960.1%1st Place
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6.77Brown University0.580.1%1st Place
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6.67Boston University0.600.1%1st Place
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7.07Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.340.1%1st Place
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8.34McGill University-0.010.0%1st Place
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9.79Bates College-0.500.0%1st Place
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6.35Fairfield University0.690.1%1st Place
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5.71Connecticut College0.920.1%1st Place
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9.69Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
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11.55Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.290.0%1st Place
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12.27Middlebury College-1.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Ingalls | 15.7% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Grant Adam | 21.8% | 18.5% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rooks | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| John Cabell | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Luke Kenahan | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Mikhail Lavrenov | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 3.0% |
| Harrison Nash | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 17.0% | 15.6% | 7.2% |
| Nolan Cooper | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 10.4% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Caleb Burt | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 15.1% | 8.1% |
| Oliver Browne | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 14.3% | 24.6% | 29.9% |
| Talia Trigg | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 10.6% | 18.8% | 48.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.